Electoral Calculus has predicted that Bristol Central has a 69 per cent probability of electing the country’s second-ever Green MP in the next general election.
The current prediction is that Carla Denyer, the Green Party's MP candidate for Bristol Central and co-leader of the party, is set to receive a substantial 46.3 per cent of the vote share, resulting in a Green majority of nearly 4,000 votes.
This exceeds the prediction of a 39.4 per cent vote share for the Labour candidate, whilst the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates are expected to achieve 6.4 per cent and 3.8 per cent respectively.
Speaking on the prediction, Carla Denyer, MP candidate for Bristol, commented: “We will take nothing for granted, but this prediction that Bristol will have its first Green Party MP after the next general election mirrors what we are sensing on the ground.
“We know from talking to people on the doorstep that many in Bristol Central are uninspired by Labour and are turning to the Greens because they know we stand for real action on the climate crisis and have the policies to create a fairer, more equal society. They also know Green MPs will hold a future government to account.
“With 12 out of 14 councillors in the Bristol Central constituency being Green councillors, we know also that there is a strong bedrock of Green support here. There’s real momentum building. A huge number of volunteers and supporters will continue working hard to get us over the line – there’s a growing belief that Greens can win here."